Corrosive ocean water is currently associated with deeper water in OCNMS and is probably only drawn to the surface during periods of intense upwelling. The magnitude and extent of corrosive ocean water (with pH reduced relative to contemporary values and reduced availability of carbonate ions) is also expected to increase. Downscaling of multiple global climate models for the Pacific NorthWest Coastal zone suggests that ocean water will warm on average, by 1.2☌ by 2050, given a range of emissions scenarios (Section 2.2). These are summarized here:īased on the literature reviewed for this assessment it is considered likely that Pacific Northwest (including the habitats within OCNMS) average air and ocean temperatures will rise measurably by 2100, probably outside of the contemporary range of variability.
These physical effects were divided into seven categories: Increasing ocean temperature, ocean acidification, sea level rise, increasing storminess, changing ocean current patterns (with a focus on upwelling), increasing hypoxia or anoxia and altered hydrology in rivers draining into OCNMS. The direct consequences of climate change on the physical environment in OCNMS were considered and, where possible, the direction and magnitude of change was estimated (Section 2). This assessment is designed to assist OCNMS in adapting to climate change by bridging the gap between the global projections provided by the IPCC, and the regional and local implications of climate change by 2100. The Office of National Marine Sanctuaries developed its "Climate-Smart Sanctuary" program in order to facilitate the process of climate adaptation in these special marine waters. As one of 14 national marine sanctuaries managed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), OCNMS is provided protected status because of extraordinary ecological and maritime heritage values. The Olympic Coast National Marine Sanctuary (OCNMS) is comprised of 8,572 square kilometers of marine and near-shore waters and intertidal habitat off of Washington State's Pacific Ocean coast. However, they are less useful for assisting managers and policy-makers at the regional or local scale in their efforts to prepare for and, where possible, adapt to climate-related changes.
These projections are valuable in terms of describing the global implications of climate change and clarifying the role that anthropogenic emission of greenhouse gases plays in large-scale ecosystem change. In some cases, the collapse of entire ecosystems is viewed as possible, or even likely. Due to global climate change, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projects a high likelihood that marine ecosystems around the globe will be measurably altered in the coming century (Bernstein et al.
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